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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 34

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short middle to 17-A.Miller to MIN 29 for 5 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.81 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model