4th & Data
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 16:25 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

MIN
35.3%
CHI
64.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.159 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.047 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Kentrell Brothers LB Out Wrist
Josh Kline G Out Concussion
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Elbow

CHI

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Bilal Nichols DT Out Hand
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Knee
Kyle Long G Questionable Hip
Trey Burton TE Questionable Groin
Eddy Pineiro K Questionable right Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 6
–
CHI 16

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:50 TD CHI (7:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short left to 29-T.Cohen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG CHI (:04) 15-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 10
  • Q3 12:52 FG CHI (12:52) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 13
  • Q3 03:07 FG CHI (3:07) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 16
  • Q4 03:02 TD MIN (3:02) 33-D.Cook right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 43%

    (10:14) 4-C.Daniel right guard to MIN 42 for 1 yard (93-S.Stephen). Measurement

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 33%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CHI 10, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen. PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for 8 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on MIN-98-L.Joseph, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 10.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 67%

    (2:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short middle to 17-A.Miller to MIN 29 for 5 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (:04) 15-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 14 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (12:52) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:26) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CHI 16, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to MIN 35, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 34 for -1 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:11) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to CHI 21, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (3:07) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs pushed ob at CHI 30 for 39 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:35) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 64 yards to MIN 24, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 28 for 4 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:00) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to CHI 18, Center-58-A.Cutting. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 34 for 16 yards (84-I.Smith).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to MIN 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:43) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 21 for 9 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%

    (:30) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to MIN 27 for 1 yard (99-D.Hunter).