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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 20

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.56 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model