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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(11:26) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CHI 16, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP