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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 75

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to MIN 35, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 34 for -1 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP