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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 12

Chicago Bears 13 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:07) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP