4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.99 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -1.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model