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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 28

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(:30) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to MIN 27 for 1 yard (99-D.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP