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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model