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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

OAK
34.4%
IND
65.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.011 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
IND 27
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

OAK

Dwayne Harris WR Out Ankle
Gabe Jackson G Out Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Jordan Devey C Questionable Groin

IND

Malik Hooker S Out Knee
Darius Leonard LB Out Concussion
Tyquan Lewis DT Out Ankle
T.Y. Hilton WR Doubtful Quadricep
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Questionable Neck
Pierre Desir CB Questionable Hamstring
Jabaal Sheard DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 31
–
IND 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:16 TD LV (9:16) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 08:13 TD LV (8:13) 11-T.Davis left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 13 – IND 0
  • Q1 05:28 TD IND (5:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 14 – IND 6
  • Q2 14:18 TD LV (14:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-T.Williams for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – IND 7
  • Q2 07:37 FG IND (7:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. OAK 21 – IND 10
  • Q3 03:18 FG LV (3:18) 8-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 24 – IND 10
  • Q4 05:32 TD IND (5:32) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 80-C.Rogers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 24 – IND 16
  • Q4 02:17 TD LV (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris at IND 30. 25-E.Harris for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 30 – IND 17
  • Q4 01:19 TD IND (1:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 31 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to LV 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Davis to LV 40 for 1 yard (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to LV 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Davis to LV 41 for 11 yards (49-M.Adams). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 33.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:41) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to IND 16, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers to IND 35 for 19 yards (85-D.Carrier).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 16 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:17) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to IND 32, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers to IND 47 for 15 yards (47-T.Sieg).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 42%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to LV 40 for 6 yards (29-L.Joyner). PENALTY on LV-94-C.Liuget, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 60%

    (:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (:16) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to IND 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to LV 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 52%

    (8:32) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to IND 41 for 1 yard (58-B.Okereke, 26-C.Geathers).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (3:18) 8-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to LV 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on LV-35-C.Riley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LV 12.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:31) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to IND 6, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 9. 80-C.Rogers to IND 10 for 1 yard (22-K.Nixon).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:59) 21-N.Hines right guard to IND 22 for 4 yards (59-T.Whitehead, 21-G.Conley).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to IND 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 37%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.