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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) 4-A.Vinatieri 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model