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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:16) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to IND 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.70 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -1.33 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model