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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 8-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 8, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model