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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to LV 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on LV-35-C.Riley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LV 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model