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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 56

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to IND 6, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 9. 80-C.Rogers to IND 10 for 1 yard (22-K.Nixon).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model