4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 21-N.Hines right guard to IND 22 for 4 yards (59-T.Whitehead, 21-G.Conley).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.10 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model