4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 31

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.52 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP