Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 85

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to LV 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-T.Davis to LV 41 for 11 yards (49-M.Adams). PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model