Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(7:58) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to PHI 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model