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Philadelphia Eagles

2-2 HC Doug Pederson
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Green Bay Packers

3-1 HC Matt LaFleur
Thursday 2019-09-26 · 20:20 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI
43.6%
GB
56.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.015 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.098 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.123 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22 15–29
–
GB 23 16–30
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

PHI

Ronald Darby CB Out Hamstring
DeSean Jackson WR Out Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Foot
Corey Clement RB Questionable Shoulder

GB

Montravius Adams DE Out Shoulder
Oren Burks LB Out Chest
Kyler Fackrell LB Questionable Shoulder
Jake Kumerow WR Questionable Shoulder
Za'Darius Smith LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 34
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 TD GB (10:36) 33-A.Jones right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 14:04 FG GB (14:04) 2-M.Crosby 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. PHI 0 – GB 10
  • Q2 11:52 TD PHI (11:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PHI-86-Z.Ertz, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at GB 6 - No Play. The Replay Official reviewed the offensive pass interference ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – GB 10
  • Q2 08:28 FG GB (8:28) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. PHI 7 – GB 13
  • Q2 02:48 TD PHI (2:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – GB 13
  • Q2 01:02 TD PHI (1:02) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – GB 13
  • Q2 00:14 TD GB (:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – GB 19
  • Q3 09:18 TD PHI (9:18) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 24-J.Howard for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – GB 20
  • Q3 03:21 TD GB (3:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – GB 26
  • Q4 14:17 TD PHI (14:17) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (12:58) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to GB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 11 for no gain (36-R.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 37%

    (7:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (14:04) 2-M.Crosby 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%

    (8:28) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:03) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to PHI 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:58) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to PHI 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to GB 28, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (9:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Graham.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (5:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to GB 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

    See the full breakdown →