Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Green Bay Packers 20

(6:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to GB 28, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.62 EP
52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model