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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 6, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP