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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SEA
67.9%
ARI
32.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.079 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.189 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 27
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: SEA by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Ethan Pocic C Doubtful Back
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Back
Quinton Jefferson DT Questionable Hip
Rashaad Penny RB Questionable Hamstring
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Damiere Byrd WR Out Hamstring
Charles Washington S Out Shoulder
Andy Lee P Questionable right Hip
Miles Brown DT Questionable Shoulder
Lamont Gaillard G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
ARI 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:03 FG SEA (5:03) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 04:23 TD SEA (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Clowney at ARI 27. 90-J.Clowney for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – ARI 0
  • Q2 13:54 FG ARI (13:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow. SEA 10 – ARI 3
  • Q2 10:53 TD SEA (10:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-W.Dissly for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-90-J.Bullard, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. SEA 16 – ARI 3
  • Q2 00:20 FG SEA (:20) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – ARI 3
  • Q4 10:27 TD ARI (10:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – ARI 9
  • Q4 02:19 TD SEA (2:19) (Shotgun) 22-C.Prosise right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 26 – ARI 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 85%

    (9:48) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (5:03) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (13:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (7:43) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 26%

    (5:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 6, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:21) 9-R.Winslow punts 51 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-42-D.Gardeck.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:20) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to ARI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 19 for 1 yard (28-U.Amadi).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:20) 9-R.Winslow punts 45 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 41 for 6 yards (89-A.Isabella; 87-M.Williams). PENALTY on SEA-55-B.Burr-Kirven, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (6:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 33 yards to ARI 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on SEA-69-T.Ott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 14.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:30) 9-R.Winslow punts 45 yards to SEA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 9 for -3 yards (89-A.Isabella).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to ARI 20, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.