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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model