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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to ARI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 19 for 1 yard (28-U.Amadi).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model