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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 24

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 19 for 5 yards (31-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.80 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model