Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NYG defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Daniel Jones (NYG): +0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Daniel Jones (NYG) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
WAS
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:51 TD NYG (8:51) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 22-W.Gallman Jr for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 6
- Q2 12:05 TD NYG (12:05) 22-W.Gallman Jr right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 13
- Q2 02:17 FG WAS (2:17) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NYG 14
- Q2 00:03 FG NYG (:03) 2-A.Rosas 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. WAS 3 – NYG 17
- Q3 01:29 TD NYG (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle intended for 87-J.Sprinkle INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Peppers [94-D.Tomlinson] at WAS 32. 21-J.Peppers for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – NYG 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 85%
(11:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 19 for 5 yards (31-F.Moreau).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:10) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 6. 80-T.Jones to NYG 6 for no gain (19-R.Davis).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(9:17) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 17. 80-T.Jones to NYG 17 for no gain (38-S.Thomas).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 18%
(7:21) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to NYG 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(2:17) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(10:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to WAS 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 13 for 6 yards (30-A.Hamilton).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 54%
(8:58) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYG 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 20 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(13:35) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to NYG 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones to NYG 26 for 4 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(12:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to WAS 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EPp(convert) 72%
(6:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to WAS 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. PENALTY on WAS-32-J.Moreland, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 5.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 89 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 62%
(4:41) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones to NYG 35 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett).