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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 89

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones to NYG 35 for 4 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.24 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP