Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYG 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 6. 80-T.Jones to NYG 6 for no gain (19-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model