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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP