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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL
50.5%
PIT
49.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Mason Rudolph (PIT) has only 3 prior starts in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Out Knee
Matt Skura C Questionable Knee
Brandon Williams DT Questionable Knee
Cyrus Jones CB Questionable Foot

PIT

Anthony Chickillo LB Out Foot
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Knee
Vance McDonald TE Questionable Shoulder
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Toe
Vince Williams LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 26
–
PIT 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:24 FG BAL (7:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 04:54 TD BAL (4:54) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – PIT 0
  • Q1 02:50 TD PIT (2:50) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – PIT 6
  • Q2 11:26 TD BAL (11:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – PIT 7
  • Q2 04:43 FG PIT (4:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 17 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 17 – PIT 13
  • Q3 03:45 TD PIT (3:45) 30-J.Conner left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BAL 17 – PIT 19
  • Q4 11:42 FG BAL (11:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – PIT 20
  • Q4 02:41 FG PIT (2:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 20 – PIT 23
  • Q4 00:14 FG BAL (:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – PIT 23
  • Q5 05:31 FG BAL (5:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 26 – PIT 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:47) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 39, Center-57-K.Canaday. 27-C.Jones to BAL 41 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 87%

    (4:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (3:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. PENALTY on BAL-54-T.Bowser, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 41%

    (9:10) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 44, and recovers at PIT 44. 8-L.Jackson to PIT 43 for 1 yard (48-B.Dupree).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (11:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 36%

    (7:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:17) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 42, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer to BAL 45 for 13 yards (32-D.Elliott).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (2:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

    (:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.