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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 39, Center-57-K.Canaday. 27-C.Jones to BAL 41 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.23 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model