Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to BAL 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns. PENALTY on BAL-54-T.Bowser, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model