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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 44, and recovers at PIT 44. 8-L.Jackson to PIT 43 for 1 yard (48-B.Dupree).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model