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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to BAL 1, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-25-A.Burns.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model