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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model