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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP