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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model