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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to CLE 19 for 8 yards (54-O.Vernon).

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.23 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model