4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2019-10-07 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CLE
39.1%
SF
60.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF on 7 more days rest than CLE
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.228 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) +0.141 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 23
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CLE

Kendall Lamm T Out Knee
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Hamstring
Greedy Williams CB Questionable Hamstring
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Quadricep
Rashard Higgins WR Questionable Knee
Christopher Hubbard T Questionable Foot
Sheldrick Redwine S Questionable Hamstring

SF

Joe Staley T Out Fibula
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Foot
Tevin Coleman RB Questionable Ankle
Dee Ford DE Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 3
–
SF 31

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:28 TD SF (13:28) 22-M.Breida left guard for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 06:30 TD SF (6:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 22-M.Breida for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2-yds deep in end zone. 0-yac CLE 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 11:26 FG CLE (11:26) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – SF 14
  • Q2 02:00 TD SF (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – SF 20
  • Q3 10:42 TD SF (10:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at CLE 1. 1-yac CLE 3 – SF 27
  • Q4 05:13 FG SF (5:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. CLE 3 – SF 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:41) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to SF 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 51%

    (12:09) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 28 yards to CLE 12, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:35) 7-J.Gillan punts 68 yards to SF 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

    (1:14) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (11:26) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:39) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to CLE 22, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 81%

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to CLE 19 for 8 yards (54-O.Vernon).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:58) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to SF 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-R.James Jr. to CLE 38 for 32 yards (20-T.Thomas).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 67%

    (:15) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:17) 7-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to SF 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-12-K.Hodge.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (1:44) 9-R.Gould 32 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-T.Thomas), Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by CLE-39-T.Mitchell at CLE 18. 39-T.Mitchell to CLE 45 for 27 yards (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to SF 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:19) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to CLE 18, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:39) 7-J.Gillan punts 63 yards to SF 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:17) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to CLE 34, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-O.Beckham to CLE 28 for -6 yards (36-M.Harris). FUMBLES (36-M.Harris), RECOVERED by SF-31-R.Mostert at CLE 29. 31-R.Mostert to CLE 29 for no gain (20-T.Thomas).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (5:13) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:47) 7-J.Gillan punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.