Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to CLE 34, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 13-O.Beckham to CLE 28 for -6 yards (36-M.Harris). FUMBLES (36-M.Harris), RECOVERED by SF-31-R.Mostert at CLE 29. 31-R.Mostert to CLE 29 for no gain (20-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.60 EP
74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model