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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 84

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 6-C.Wadman punts 40 yards to LAC 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.13 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model