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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

DEN
35.8%
LAC
64.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.158 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
LAC 23
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot
Josey Jewell LB Questionable Hamstring
Kareem Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee

LAC

Hunter Henry TE Out Knee
Nasir Adderley S Doubtful Hamstring
Michael Badgley K Doubtful right Groin
Justin Jackson RB Doubtful Calf
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Hip
Virgil Green TE Questionable Groin
Mike Williams WR Questionable Back
Thomas Davis LB Questionable Groin
Melvin Ingram DE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20
–
LAC 13

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:11 TD DEN (11:11) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 05:11 TD DEN (5:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – LAC 0
  • Q2 05:22 FG DEN (5:22) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 17 – LAC 0
  • Q3 00:49 TD LAC (:49) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – LAC 6
  • Q4 06:52 FG LAC (6:52) 3-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. DEN 17 – LAC 10
  • Q4 02:00 FG DEN (2:00) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 20 – LAC 10
  • Q4 00:15 FG LAC (:15) 3-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. DEN 20 – LAC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:26) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to DEN 7, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 19 for 12 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 19 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%

    (8:49) 3-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.Jones), Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (5:22) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to DEN 1 for no gain (22-K.Jackson). FUMBLES (22-K.Jackson), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:27) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to DEN 37, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at LAC 45 for 18 yards (16-A.Patton). PENALTY on DEN-19-F.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 45.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (11:03) 6-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 23%

    (8:14) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to DEN 9, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:01) 6-C.Wadman punts 40 yards to LAC 44, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 25%

    (4:30) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to DEN 4, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 4 for no gain (16-A.Patton; 28-B.Facyson).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:49) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (9:00) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (6:52) 3-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:33) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to LAC 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King to LAC 20 for 1 yard (36-T.Marshall).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:30) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to DEN 29, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 31 for 2 yards (35-T.Pope).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

    (2:00) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.