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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to DEN 4, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 4 for no gain (16-A.Patton; 28-B.Facyson).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.10 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model