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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 36

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model