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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 3-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model