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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to LAC 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 20-D.King to LAC 20 for 1 yard (36-T.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP