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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to DEN 7, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 19 for 12 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model