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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 28

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.92 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model