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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 56

New York Giants 7 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model